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Betting the NHL
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Introduction
The goal of this page is to help the recreational hockey better. I carefully look at the value of the major ways to bet -- the money line, over/under, and puck line, to determine the best value. Then I list some miscellaneous hockey statistics for your entertainment.
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Data and Methodology
The following data is from every game played in the four NHL seasons starting with the 2017/18 season. The total number of games played in these four seasons is 4,875. It is worth noting that the 2020/2021 season was shortened to 1,904 games due to the Covid pandemic.
The data was purchased from Big Ball Data one season at a time. The first three seasons had very tight lines that I presume came from Pinnacle Sports. The fourth season had more normal 20-cent lines. In evaluating the expected returns below, I calculated overall returns for all the data and then used the appropriate weighting factors to get the returns to equal the 4.54% expected with a 20-cent line, which the vast majority of sports books offer for hockey.
The next three sections show my analysis of the three major ways of betting hockey -- the money line, over/under, and puck line.
Compare Online NHL Odds
Ice Hockey : HockeyAllsvenskan
| Upcoming matches | Game | Money Line | Spread | Total | Featured Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu Dec 12th 2am | IF Björklöven - Vimmerby HC |
-1000
|
130 (-3.5)
|
-110 (6.5)
|
Björklöven is the favorite against Vimmerby HC, with strong home record. Vimmerby HC struggles away. Focus on Björklöven dominating in offense. Consider Björklöven to win with a margin. |
| Thu Dec 12th 2am | Östersunds IK - Västerås IK |
115
|
-250 (1.5)
|
-145 (5)
|
Östersunds IK shows strong defensive tactics, but Västerås IK's offensive might is notable. Consider a close game with a slight edge to Västerås due to their scoring power. |
| Thu Dec 12th 2am | Djurgårdens IF - AIK |
-260
|
105 (-1.5)
|
100 (5.5)
|
Djurgårdens IF has shown strong offense, while AIK struggles defensively. Expect a high-scoring match with possible advantage to Djurgårdens IF due to home advantage and recent form. |
| Thu Dec 12th 2am | Tingsryds AIF - Almtuna IS |
-130
|
220 (-1.5)
|
-105 (5)
|
Tingsryds AIF and Almtuna IS are evenly matched in the NHL. Expect a close game, potentially low-scoring. Home advantage could be crucial for Tingsryds AIF. |
| Thu Dec 12th 2am | Mora IK - BIK Karlskoga |
110
|
-275 (1.5)
|
-125 (5)
|
Mora IK vs. BIK Karlskoga: Balanced teams face off. Consider home advantage for Mora. Watch player stats and recent form for informed betting. |
| Thu Dec 12th 2am | Kalmar HC - IK Oskarshamn |
-110
|
-285 (1.5)
|
-125 (5.5)
|
Kalmar HC struggles with defense; Oskarshamn's offensive prowess could dominate. Consider Oskarshamn's recent form and higher league status, which may lead to a decisive victory. |
| Thu Dec 12th 2am | Nybro Vikings IF - Södertälje SK |
145
|
-185 (1.5)
|
-150 (5)
|
Nybro Vikings IF and Södertälje SK face off in an anticipated matchup. Expect a competitive game, with both teams having strong rosters. Watch for any late roster updates. |
Ice Hockey : NHL
| Upcoming matches | Game | Money Line | Spread | Total | Featured Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Dec 10th 8am | Buffalo Sabres - Detroit Red Wings |
-140
|
|
|
The Sabres exhibit defensive frailties, but their attack is aggressive. Red Wings have a balanced squad, promising intense competition. Key players' performance will greatly influence the outcome. |
| Tue Dec 10th 8am | New York Rangers - Chicago Blackhawks |
|
|
|
New York Rangers are strong favorites against the struggling Chicago Blackhawks. Expect high scores from Rangers' attacking lineup. Consider betting on Rangers' win and over total goals. |
| Tue Dec 10th 8am | Montréal Canadiens - Anaheim Ducks |
|
|
|
Montréal Canadiens vs Anaheim Ducks: Expect a close matchup. Canadiens have a solid offense, but Ducks' defense is strong. Watch for potential key plays from both teams' star players. |
Ice Hockey : NHL Championship Winner
| Fri Jun 20th 8am | Competitor/Team | Quote |
|---|---|---|
| Edmonton Oilers |
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More odds |
| Carolina Hurricanes |
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| Florida Panthers |
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| Dallas Stars |
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| New York Rangers |
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| Toronto Maple Leafs |
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| Colorado Avalanche |
1300
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| New Jersey Devils |
1400
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| Winnipeg Jets |
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| Vegas Golden Knights |
1800
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| Tampa Bay Lightning |
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| Minnesota Wild |
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| Vancouver Canucks |
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| Washington Capitals |
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| Boston Bruins |
3300
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| Los Angeles Kings |
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| Nashville Predators |
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| Ottawa Senators |
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| New York Islanders |
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| Utah Hockey Club |
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| Buffalo Sabres |
10000
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| Seattle Kraken |
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| Detroit Red Wings |
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| St Louis Blues |
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| Calgary Flames |
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| Pittsburgh Penguins |
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| Philadelphia Flyers |
20000
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More odds |
| Montréal Canadiens |
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| Chicago Blackhawks |
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| Columbus Blue Jackets |
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| Anaheim Ducks |
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| San Jose Sharks |
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Money Line
Money Line bets are simple bets on who will win. The following table shows the expected return flat betting all underdogs, favorites, and picks (both teams have 50/50 chance of winning). As expected, based on studying other sports, the underdogs offer a better value, with a house edge 2.73% less than better on favorites.
Money Line Bets in the NHL
| Bet on | Expected Return |
House Edge |
|---|---|---|
| Underdog | 96.82% | 3.18% |
| Favorite | 94.09% | 5.91% |
| Pick | 95.45% | 4.55% |
| Total | 95.45% | 4.55% |
Of the 4,875 games in the last four seasons studied, the home team won 2,627 (53.9%) and the road team was 2,248 (46.1%). The next table breaks down how money line bets went both ways.
Money Line Bets in the NHL
| Bet on | Expected Return |
House Edge |
|---|---|---|
| Road | 94.82% | 5.18% |
| Home | 96.09% | 3.91% |
| Total | 95.45% | 4.55% |
Over/Under
The next table looks at bets against the total. Not surprisingly, bets on the under did bet, with a house edge 1.67% than bets on the cover. This does not come as a surprise, because bets on the under do significantly better than the over in every sport I have studied.
Over/Under Bets in the NHL
| Bet on | Expected Return |
House Edge |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 94.62% | 5.38% |
| Under | 96.29% | 3.71% |
| Total | 95.45% | 4.55% |
Puck Line
The Puck Line is like the Run Line in baseball. It is a point spread that is always 1.5. The favorite always gives up 1.5 goals and the underdog gets them. The following table shows that the house edge betting on the underdog is 1.61% lower than betting the favorite.
Puck Line Bets in the NHL
| Bet on | Expected Return |
House Edge |
|---|---|---|
| Underdog +1.5 | 96.26% | 3.74% |
| Favorite -1.5 | 94.65% | 5.35% |
| Total | 95.45% | 4.55% |
I should mention I spent a lot of time studying puck line bets, looking to see if there was any value assuming the money line bets were fair. To make a long story short, I find the sports books do a good job in setting the puck lines properly.
Fun Facts
The following table shows the average goals scored by period and overtime for both regular season games and the playoffs.
The reason I think they should be considered separately is there is an incentive to go to overtime in regular season games. To be specific, if a game is decided after three periods, then two points are awarded to the winner and zero to the loser. However, if the game is decided in overtime, two points are awarded to the winner and one to the loser. Overtime is always sudden death (team to score first wins). The data shows the probability of overtime in a regular season game is 22.57% and drops to 20.89% in the playoffs.
Average Goals by Period
| Period | Regular Season |
Overtime | Combined |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.7260 | 1.5300 | 1.7106 |
| 2 | 2.0100 | 1.9530 | 2.0055 |
| 3 | 2.0151 | 1.9008 | 2.0062 |
| Overtime | 0.2257 | 0.2089 | 0.2244 |
| Total | 5.9768 | 5.5927 | 5.9467 |
The following table shows the probability of all viable number of goals scored per period for a single team.
Number of Goals per Team by Period
| Goals | Period 1 | Period 2 | Period 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 42.02% | 36.04% | 37.08% |
| 1 | 37.01% | 37.84% | 35.67% |
| 2 | 15.59% | 17.94% | 19.22% |
| 3 | 4.39% | 6.50% | 6.22% |
| 4 | 0.81% | 1.41% | 1.56% |
| 5 | 0.17% | 0.24% | 0.23% |
| 6 | 0.01% | 0.03% | 0.03% |
| 7 | 0.00% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| Total | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% |
| Average | 0.8553 | 1.0028 | 1.0031 |
The following table shows the probability of all viable number of goals scored per period for both teams combined.
Number of Goals per Team by Period
| Goals | Period 1 | Period 2 | Period 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.68% | 12.80% | 12.21% |
| 1 | 30.75% | 26.38% | 26.87% |
| 2 | 26.77% | 28.35% | 28.33% |
| 3 | 15.77% | 18.65% | 19.43% |
| 4 | 6.58% | 9.39% | 8.88% |
| 5 | 1.78% | 3.16% | 2.81% |
| 6 | 0.51% | 0.82% | 1.15% |
| 7 | 0.06% | 0.37% | 0.29% |
| 8 | 0.06% | 0.08% | 0.04% |
| 9 | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Total | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% |
| Average | 1.7106 | 2.0055 | 2.0062 |
The following shows the number of goals scored by the home team across the road team for the four seasons beginning with the one that started in 2017.
Number of Goals by Home Team across Road Team
| Home Goals |
Road Goals |
||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
| 0 | 0 | 40 | 46 | 88 | 61 | 20 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 264 |
| 1 | 51 | 0 | 214 | 129 | 178 | 70 | 23 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 680 |
| 2 | 49 | 227 | 0 | 334 | 151 | 130 | 41 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 952 |
| 3 | 96 | 168 | 336 | 0 | 278 | 96 | 56 | 18 | 7 | 0 | 1055 |
| 4 | 68 | 180 | 191 | 274 | 0 | 128 | 24 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 887 |
| 5 | 32 | 97 | 223 | 89 | 106 | 0 | 34 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 591 |
| 6 | 11 | 44 | 56 | 93 | 38 | 35 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 283 |
| 7 | 6 | 25 | 20 | 31 | 20 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 115 |
| 8 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 36 |
| 9 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Total | 316 | 786 | 1098 | 1048 | 841 | 492 | 195 | 78 | 19 | 2 | 4875 |
The following shows the number of goals scored by the winning team across the losing team for the four seasons beginning with the one that started in 2017.
Number of Goals per by Winning Team across Losing Team
| Winning Team | Losing Team | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | Total | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | 91 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 91 |
| 2 | 95 | 441 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 536 |
| 3 | 184 | 297 | 670 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1151 |
| 4 | 129 | 358 | 342 | 552 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1381 |
| 5 | 52 | 167 | 353 | 185 | 234 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 991 |
| 6 | 20 | 67 | 97 | 149 | 62 | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 464 |
| 7 | 6 | 35 | 38 | 49 | 40 | 13 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 192 |
| 8 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 55 |
| 9 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Total | 580 | 1375 | 1514 | 952 | 347 | 92 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4875 |
The following table shows the number the count for each margin of victory and the probability for the four seasons beginning with the one that started in 2017.
Margin of Victory
| Margin | Count | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2,069 | 42.44% |
| 2 | 996 | 20.43% |
| 3 | 1,095 | 22.46% |
| 4 | 451 | 9.25% |
| 5 | 172 | 3.53% |
| 6 | 71 | 1.46% |
| 7 | 14 | 0.29% |
| 8 | 4 | 0.08% |
| 9 | 3 | 0.06% |
| Total | 4,875 | 100.00% |
The following table shows various statistics per game for road and home teams as well as the total between the two.
Miscellaneous Statistics — Road vs. Home
| Description | Road Team | Home Team | Combined |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shifts | 384.95 | 379.46 | 764.41 |
| Shots on goal | 30.56 | 31.87 | 62.43 |
| Shots missed | 11.36 | 12.16 | 23.52 |
| Shots blocked | 14.34 | 13.90 | 28.24 |
| Assists | 4.68 | 5.16 | 9.84 |
| Points* | 7.47 | 8.22 | 15.70 |
| Penalties | 3.58 | 3.34 | 6.92 |
| Penalty minutes | 8.47 | 7.92 | 16.40 |
| Hits | 22.37 | 23.29 | 45.66 |
| Take aways | 6.32 | 7.97 | 14.29 |
| Give aways | 7.95 | 10.56 | 18.52 |
| Faceoffs won | 28.42 | 29.93 | 58.35 |
| Faceoffs lost | 29.93 | 28.42 | 58.34 |
The following table shows various statistics per game for regular season and play offs games as well as the total between the two.
Miscellaneous Statistics — Regular Season vs. Playoffs
| Description | Regular Season |
Playoffs | Combined |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shifts | 759.22 | 825.24 | 764.41 |
| Shots on goal | 62.40 | 62.79 | 62.43 |
| Shots missed | 23.48 | 23.95 | 23.52 |
| Shots blocked | 27.92 | 31.91 | 28.24 |
| Assists | 9.88 | 9.34 | 9.84 |
| Points | 15.76 | 14.93 | 15.70 |
| Penalties | 6.85 | 7.77 | 6.92 |
| Penalty minutes | 16.16 | 19.18 | 16.40 |
| Hits | 43.74 | 68.15 | 45.66 |
| Take aways | 14.28 | 14.39 | 14.29 |
| Give aways | 18.32 | 20.89 | 18.52 |
| Faceoffs won | 58.29 | 59.09 | 58.35 |
Notes:
*: A point is different from a goal. Points may be awarded to players assisting in a goal. The ratio of points to goals in the NHL for the four seasons starting in 2017 is 2.64.
The following table shows the ratio of goals to shots on goals cut various ways.
Ratio of Goals to Shots
| Category | Ratio |
|---|---|
| Away | 9.29% |
| Home | 9.75% |
| Regular season | 9.58% |
| Playoffs | 8.91% |
| Total | 9.52% |